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The “Export Price Norm” saved Australia from the Great Recession
Milton Friedman once said never to underestimate the importance of luck of nations. I believe that is very true and I think the same goes for central banks. Some nations came through the shock in...
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The RBA just reminded us about the “Export Price Norm”
In my view one of the key reasons that Australia avoided recession in 2008-9 was the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) effectively is operating what I earlier have called a “Export Price Norm”. Here is...
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A modest proposal for post-Chavez monetary reform in Venezuela
Let’s just say it as it is – I was very positively surprised by the massive response to my post on the economic legacy of Hugo Chavez. However, as somebody who primarily wants to blog about monetary...
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Russia’s slowdown – another domestic demand story
Today I am in to Moscow to do a presentation on the Russian economy. It will be yet another chance to tell one of my pet-stories and that is that growth in nominal GDP in Russia is basically determined...
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Toilet paper shortage is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon
This is from Sky News: Venezuelans have been hit by a chronic toilet paper shortage, leading to empty supermarket shelves and long queues to snap up the remaining rolls…When new stocks arrive at...
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Angola should adopt an ‘Export-Price-Norm’ to escape the ‘China shock’
It might be a surprise to most people but one of the fastest growing economies in the world over the last 10-15 years has been Angola. A combination of structural reforms and a commodity boom have...
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PBoC governor Zhou Xiaochuan should give Jeff Frankel a call (he is welcome...
Jeffrey Frankel of course is a long-term advocate of NGDP targeting, but recently he has started to advocate that if central banks continue to target inflation then they should target producer prices...
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The Sudanese Pound – another Troubled Currency
A couple of days ago I wrote about Steve Hanke’s new Troubled Currencies project. The project presently covers Argentina, Iran, North Korea, Syria andVenezuela. However, I think Steve now has to expand...
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Ukraine should adopt an ‘Export Price Norm’
It has not be a great year for Emerging Markets and the next Emerging Markets country to worry about could very well be Ukraine. This is what my Danske Bank colleague Sanna Kurronen has to say about...
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The Casselian-Mundelian view: An overvalued dollar caused the Great Recession
This is CNBC’s legendary Larry Kudlow in a comment to my previous post: My friend Bob Mundell believes a massively over-valued dollar (ie, overly tight monetary policy) was proximate cause of financial...
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Listen to my new hero Jose Dario Uribe
The turmoil in the Emerging Markets currencies markets continues. Most EM central bankers seem to be very scared by the continued sell-off in Emerging Markets and central banks around the world have...
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The Cedi Panic: When prayers don’t work you go for currency controls
The Ghanaian cedi has lost more than 30% against the US dollar over the past year and the sell-off in the currency has escalated since the beginning of the year as the Ghanaian markets have been hit by...
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Recession time for Russia – the ultra wonkish version
I have long been a proponent of what I have called the Export Price Norm (EPN). The idea with EPN is that commodity exporting countries can ensure stable nominal spending growth by pegging their...
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Oil-exporters need to rethink their monetary policy regimes
I started writing this post on Monday, but I have had an insanely busy week – mostly because of the continued sharp drop in oil prices and the impact of that on particularly the Russian rouble. But now...
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Talking to my phone: The Gulf States should peg their FX rates to oil prices
Oops I did it again – this time I talk to my phone about monetary policy in the Gulf States and my suggestion that these countries should peg their currencies to the oil price or a basket of the oil...
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Kwanza devaluation is the right decision, but fundamental regime change is...
This is from Reuters: Angola’s central bank devalued the kwanza currency by about 6 percent against the dollar, a statement showed, a move analysts said was aimed at stimulating foreign currency...
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Bank of Canada at the Zero Lower Bound: The Export Price Norm to the rescue
The continued drop in the oil prices have caused the Bank of Canada to reconsider whether it should cut it key policy rate – the Overnight rate – and in a speech earlier this week BoC governor Stephen...
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The ‘Dollar Bloc’ continues to fall apart – Azerbaijan floats the Manat
I have for sometime argued that the quasi-currency union ‘Dollar Bloc’ is not an Optimal Currency Area and that it therefore is doomed to fall apart. The latest ‘member’ of the ‘Dollar Bloc’ left...
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Oil exporters do not devalue to boost exports, but to stabilize public finances
Yesterday Azerbaijan’s central bank gave up its pegged exchange rate regime and floated the Manat. The Manat plummeted immediately and was essentially halved in value in yesterday’s trading. Azerbaijan...
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PBoC should stop the silliness and float the RMB
This is morning we got this news (from Bloomberg): China’s central bank conducted the biggest reverse-repurchase operations since September, adding funds to the financial system after money-market...
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